Historically, like other industries and agencies that assess and manage risk, conservation adopted a process-control model of preservation. These industries and agencies recognize the process model is fundamentally inadequate and are replacing it with a predictive model based on anticipated risk. Over the past decade, preventive conservation also witnessed the development of systematic and predictive methodologies, but on a somewhat ad hoc basis. This article introduces a more rigorous intellectual framework adapted from the risk analysis and operations research fields. A comprehensive predictive model is necessarily complex and dependent on large amounts of shared expert knowledge but is possible. -- CCI=IC