450
Accession Number
21269
Author
Schirmer, Isabelle; Buongiorno, Joseph
Title Of Article Chaper
Contribution à l'élaboration d'un modèle du commerce international des grumes de bois tropicaux
Title Of Journal Book
Bois et Forets des Tropiques
Volume
209
Pages
65-79
Collation
15 p. : ills.
Reference Bibliography
Bibliography: p. 78-79
Language Of Text
French
Literature Type
Serial
Literature Level
Analytic
Abstract
Models of the trade of tropical logs are presented for two regions : Africa Europe and Asia-Pacific. Each model uses econometric equations of supply and demand for each sub-region and country. It then calculates the spatial equilibrium with quadratic programming, by maximizing producer plus consumer surplus. The primal solution gives quantities demanded, supplied and traded. The dual yields equilibrium prices. The model for Africa Europe is a modification of that of Adams (Modeling World Trade in Tropical Timbers, FAO, 1983). Here, the sawnwood market leads the log market and equilibria in the two markets are computed iteratively. The results for the year 1980 were similar in accuracy to those of Adams. The model for Asia Pacific deals with logs only. Test forecasts for 1979 and 1980 gave satisfactory results, but not those of 1981 after Indonesia decreased its log exports.
Keywords
tropical;wood;Africa Europe;Asia Pacific;trading
pub_id
450
Title Translation
International Trading Pattern of Bark Tropical Wood